Ozren Podnar reports
Two home countries have realistic chances of qualifying for the final stages in Austria and Switzerland. On the other hand, Northern Ireland spoiled all the good things they had done before September.
With four consecutive 3-0 wins England has decisively altered the outlook in their group. Should they avoid defeat in Moscow on October 17th, four points in the remaining two home games against Estonia and leaders Croatia would be enough to see England through to Austria and Switzerland. With a further five points England would be certain to qualify, though in the case of defeat to Russia not even six points would necessarily be enough for a top-two finish.
A possible Russia victory would complicate things for both England and Croatia, because it would make it virtually impossible for the current top two to qualify. England would then depend on Russia slipping up away to Israel or on Croatia failing to beat both Israel at home and Macedonia in Skopje.
Croatia currently have a smooth path to the Euro 2008 final stages since they just need to snatch three points against either Israel or Macedonia and avoid a heavy defeat in England. Any single-goal loss at Wembley would keep Croatia ahead of England should the two finish tied on points. Even a defeat by two goals while scoring at least once (1-3, 2-4 etc.) would be good for Croatia since the first game between the two teams finished 2-0 to the Croats.
The Croatian players and coaches have repeatedly said they would not like their last game, at Wembley, to decide anything for their own team. England would probably do well to make sure of their qualification before that knowing Croatia have not lost a Euro or World Cup qualifier since 2003 which makes it 22 games in a row.
Israel also have a remote chance of qualifying but that would depend on other outcomes even if the Israelis win all their remaining games.
The strangest group. Poland and Finland lead the way but Portugal and Serbia still depend on themselves to go through. Portugal are suffering because of three surprising consecutive draws, including one in Armenia, but Serbia did worse by losing away to the already eliminated Belgium and drawing at home with Finland. Portugal have an easy schedule culminating with a head to head clash against the Finns, while Serbia will have to win two games in the Caucasian region if they desire their last game with the Poles to count for anything.
Scotland have repeated the feat of beating France and have found themselves in an excellent position for reaching a Euro final stage after 12 years. The Tartan Army will have a motive to celebrate if their idols manage to take seven more points out of the nine possible. However, this will be a difficult task since one of their future rivals are Italy, who will not be able to afford anything but a win.
Scotland, unpredictable as they have always been, will probably give a good account of themselves against Italy, but who can tell whether they will be able to defeat an already eliminated Ukraine at home and an uncomfortable Georgia in Tbilisi?
Scotland's situation is complicated by the fact that France will mathematically qualify by winning their remaining three games, the most difficult of which will be the last one in Ukraine. However, the Slavs will have been eliminated by then and will not be as motivated as the French in their crucial match.
This means that Italy will also have to win all three of their games to stay ahead of France, two relatively easy ones and one tough fixture in Glasgow. But, when Italy have to win they usually do and the awareness of this historical fact will doubtlessly haunt the Scots until the end of the competition.
Three teams will play out for the top two spots as the fourth, Bosnia and Herzegovina, have practically been eliminated with two silly losses in September. Amazingly, the team that beat Turkey 3-2 fell in Hungary and at home to Moldova, who had not won a single game in the current qualifying cycle. Greece, Turkey and Norway have similar options as the Greeks will have to visit Turkey before the Turks travel to Norway.
The Irish hope to make it to the final stage has all but vanished after a poor showing in the two parts of the former Czechoslovakia. Just one point out of six means that Ireland is practically out, since the Czech Republic needs just three points in their three remaining games to be certain no matter what the Irish do. Germany need a single point for mathematical qualification.
Northern Ireland have committed soccer suicide by losing two not overly hard away games, in Latvia and Iceland. Instead of having 22 points they now only have 16 and will have to overcome Sweden and Spain away to finish among the top two. These two teams now look good bets to qualify, although Denmark still has an outside chance.
The Netherlands have won yet again despite a dismal display. Just as they defeated Slovenia last spring, the Dutch beat Albania 1-0 with a last-gasp goal. Unbeaten Romania and the Netherlands hold the two top spots, but Bulgaria could still spoil their plans since they entertain their northern neighbours in Sofia. Romania on the other hand host the Dutch having to win in order not to depend on what they do in Bulgaria.
The top two in each of the seven groups will automatically qualify for the finals. There are no play-offs.
Austria and Switzerland automatically qualify as hosts.
Euro 2008 kick offs on June 7, 2008 at St Jakob Park Stadium in Basle, Switzerland.
The final of Euro 2008 will be held at the Ernst Happel Stadion in Vienna, Austria on June 29.
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