The FIFA World Cup usually follows a familiar script. The standard heavyweights like Brazil, France, Argentina, and Spain inevitably dominate the pre-tournament chatter. Yet past tournaments prove a major upset is always on the cards. Think of Croatia reaching the final in 2018 or Morocco making the semis in Qatar. Now, with the competition expanding to a 48-team format, the structural dynamic has shifted.
By introducing a Round of 32, the new format forces every team to run a longer gauntlet. An extra single-elimination match fundamentally changes the physical and tactical demands of the tournament. The top nations now have an additional hurdle to clear, meaning a well-organised defence and peak conditioning can bridge the gap against raw star power in a one-off tie. With several emerging nations finding form at the right time, the traditional favourites face a much tougher route to the final.
Norway
Norway stand out as the most compelling prospect among the tournament outsiders. Having missed out on the competition since 1998, they ended their 28-year wait in emphatic fashion. Ståle Solbakken's side stormed through their qualification campaign with a flawless record of eight wins from eight matches. They completely dismantled the opposition in Group I, finding the net 37 times.
A massive part of that momentum comes down to the synergy between Martin Ødegaard and Erling Haaland. Ødegaard provides the creative engine in midfield, perfectly complementing a striker who bagged 16 goals during the qualifiers alone. This squad possesses the firepower and tactical discipline required to genuinely trouble the established heavyweights.
Their depth means they are no longer viewed as tourists just making up the numbers. In fact, you can see they are the clear favourites among the other dark horses if you check football odds online. A deep run into the knockout stages is a distinct possibility for a group arriving in North America with such impressive form.
Japan
Japan have consistently proven to be one of the most structurally sound sides on the international stage. Their real strength lies in a fluid counter-attacking transition and a disciplined mid-block, tools they use to frustrate and dismantle dominant possession-based teams. Manager Hajime Moriyasu has built a squad that thrives on absorbing pressure before striking with clinical precision.
This tactical resilience was glaringly obvious during their opening fixture of the current tournament. Facing a heavily favoured Netherlands outfit in Texas, Japan found themselves trailing twice but flatly refused to fold. A swift response from Keito Nakamura and a dramatic late equaliser from Daichi Kamada secured a vital 2-2 draw. That specific performance perfectly encapsulates why they remain such a nightmare draw for traditional heavyweights.
They simply do not panic when falling behind. Their ability to maintain their shape while hunting for transitions means they capitalise on the slimmest of margins. If they continue to display this level of grit, they are a genuine World Cup contender capable of causing serious upsets deep into the knockout rounds.
Morocco
Any lingering doubts about Morocco's ability to compete with the elite were quickly put to rest during their opening Group C fixture. Arriving in North America as the reigning African champions, they laid down a clear marker by securing a 1-1 draw against Brazil in New Jersey. Rather than sitting deep to absorb pressure, Mohamed Ouahbi's squad took the game directly to Carlo Ancelotti's side.
They registered a flurry of early chances and deservedly took the lead through Ismael Saibari's clever finish before Vinícius Júnior eventually found an equaliser. That fearless tactical approach highlights a genuine psychological shift within the national setup. Navigating the intense pressure of the 2022 World Cup to reach the semi-finals has clearly instilled a belief that they belong at the top table.
This is a battle-tested group that combines technical quality with the defensive discipline required for knockout football. Having already proven they can dictate the tempo against an established heavyweight, they look set to be a serious problem for anyone they face in the latter stages.
Colombia and Ecuador
Ecuador and Colombia arrive in North America carrying the quintessential underdog burden: they are South American nations not named Brazil or Argentina. Pundits routinely overlook them in favour of the traditional CONMEBOL giants, doubting their ability to sustain a deep run against elite European opposition in the knockout stages.
For Ecuador, that underdog status also stems from a lack of historical pedigree in the latter phases of the competition. However, they demonstrated exactly why they are a threat during their Group E opener against Ivory Coast. Despite ultimately falling to a 90th-minute Amad Diallo winner, they showed immense structural grit. Forward John Yeboah and Alan Minda both rattled the crossbar in the first half, proving they possess the physicality and transitional speed to genuinely unsettle favoured sides.
Colombia wear the dark horse label for a different reason altogether: profound inconsistency. Despite boasting world-class talent, they completely missed out on the 2022 tournament in Qatar, leaving many to question their reliability on the biggest stage. Yet Néstor Lorenzo has quietly rebuilt them into a formidable outfit. Fresh off a run to the Copa America 2024 final, they carry serious momentum into their impending Group K opener against Uzbekistan in Mexico City. With Luis Díaz providing an explosive attacking threat alongside the veteran composure of James Rodríguez, Colombia finally have the tactical pragmatism needed to disrupt the usual heavyweights.
Turkey and Senegal
Turkey routinely carry the underdog tag because of a frustrating historical cycle. They often follow brilliant qualification campaigns with high-profile tournament collapses. While technically gifted, they have previously lacked the psychological resilience to handle elite opposition when the pressure mounts.
This vulnerability was on full display in their opening Group D fixture, where they suffered a clinical 2-0 defeat to Australia in Vancouver. Despite dominating the ball and registering numerous attempts on goal, Vincenzo Montella's side simply could not find a way past the Australian backline. However, they still possess a squad capable of causing problems, blending Arda Güler's raw youth with Hakan Çalhanoğlu's midfield experience. They are repeatedly overlooked due to this exact type of inconsistency, making them a highly unpredictable prospect if they manage to bounce back.
Senegal face a completely different hurdle. Despite their status as a dominant African force, international pundits frequently underestimate teams from the continent. They are often written off as relying solely on physical power rather than tactical sophistication, a lazy narrative they are absolutely desperate to dismantle.
Aliou Cissé's squad have the perfect opportunity to prove their doubters wrong in their Group I campaign, which features a massive clash against France. With seasoned winners like Kalidou Koulibaly and Sadio Mané in the ranks, they know exactly how to frustrate possession-based setups. Having famously stunned the French back in 2002, Senegal thrive when the footballing world expects them to fail, cementing their status as the ultimate tournament wildcard.
The Magic of the Unknown
The beauty of the expanded 2026 format is that it inherently breeds unpredictability. While the established powerhouses will always dominate the headlines, the introduction of the Round of 32 means they face a longer, more exhausting path to glory. Whether it is Norway's lethal attacking duo, Japan's tactical discipline, or Senegal's giant-killing pedigree, the conditions are perfect for an outsider to upset the natural order. For genuine football fans, watching these underdog narratives unfold is exactly what makes the World Cup so captivating.