Throughout its almost 100-year history, there have been plenty of surprise moments at the World Cup. Morocco in 2022, Bulgaria in 1994, South Korea in 2002, and even North Korea in 1966 were among the teams that shocked the world by going deep into the tournament, creating little bits of history in the process.
Yet, in the vast majority of cases, World Cup underdogs tend to come up short. There's rarely been a situation where we have had a true underdog in the Final - Croatia in 2018 could perhaps be an argument - and certainly we haven't really had a shock winner.
An underdog matchup is unlikely
Put it this way, the most recent Super Bowl had participants priced at +6600 (the Seattle Seahawks) and +8000 (the New England Patriots) at the start of the season. If we were to pluck two teams out of the current 2026 World Cup odds to mirror that, we would have a World Cup Final of the USA versus Ecuador. We don't want to tempt fate, but it's never going to happen.
In terms of betting odds, the biggest underdog win (from 1966 onwards; betting data is not widely available for previous tournaments) came with Italy in 1982. The Azzurri, while seen as a "big" soccer nation, were +1800 before the tournament in Spain kicked off.
There's rarely a clear favorite
Of course, we can also argue that the reverse is true: While World Cup winners tend to be among the favorites pre-tournament, there is rarely a red-hot favorite. Indeed, the team with the lowest odds going into a World Cup was Brazil in 1966 and 1982, with prices just under +200 on both occasions. Brazil basically flopped in both tournaments, at least by their standards.
Overall, a World Cup winner's odds average about +700. It is basically reflective of the fact that we usually have a gaggle of teams who could potentially win it. This time around it's Spain, France, England, Portugal, Brazil and Argentina with the most backing, and if it is one of that sextet who ends up winning, the average odds won't be far off +700.
Still plenty of shocks can - and will - happen
So where is the value? Well, as we said, underdogs can come up short, but they can still go deep in the tournament. Plenty of World Cup sportsbooks will offer a "Team A to reach X stage of the tournament" bet, so you can pick up some value if you back underdog teams to progress to, say, the quarters or semi-finals. The only problem is picking the right team. Ecuador, Japan and all three of the host countries have been cited as potential dark horses. Morocco, though, are probably the best team in Africa, and while we don't think they will win it, there is value in backing them to reach the latter stages.
There will undoubtedly be big casualties as the tournament progresses, so we would also be wary of all the prediction models showing the "big" nations making the quarters or winning their groups. It never works out as neatly as that. Statistically speaking and going by past tournaments, at least one of Brazil, Argentina, Spain, France, England or Portugal will head home early. Again, though, it's not always easy to pick which one. Still, if the World Cup winner does not come from that group, it will be the biggest surprise since 1982, perhaps of all-time.
