World Cup 2018 Group E Preview
GROUP E
Sean O'Conor
Brazil
Coach: Tite
Formation: 4-1-2-3
FIFA World Ranking: 2nd
Best World Cup: Winners 1958, 1962, 1970, 1994, 2002
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Brazil Kit 1 |
Brazil Kit 2 |
Brazil v Switzerland 17 June; Rostov-on-Don
Brazil v Costa Rica 22 June; St. Petersburg
Brazil v Serbia 27 June; Moscow
Is this the Seleção's year again?
The bookies seem to think so and in terms of form it is hard to disagree. In 15 games since the start of 2017 they have only lost once, 1-0 in a friendly with Argentina.
This year, Brazil have won four out of four, with nine goals scored and none conceded, including perhaps crucially a 1-0 win over Germany in Berlin.
Tite's team seem to be roaring, with the best of Brazilian football back in gear - quick, skillful thrusts up the flanks, tricky ball-playing forwards and thumping strikes on goal.
The manager has worked wonders in two years, taking Brazil from 6th to 1st, albeit in an unusually weak CONMEBOL qualifying group and rejuvenating a squad despondent after group stage elimination under Dunga in the 2016 Copa America.
There seems to be a ying and yang in the air, as if the dreadful humiliation of 2014, losing 7-1 at home to Germany, is about to be redeemed by a sleek and zestful new team.
The parallels to the 1998 final disaster and Ronaldo's redemption four years later in Japan rise up as well in the case of Neymar, who exited the last World Cup on a stretcher but could leave this one grasping the trophy.
Neymar will be centre stage, which means an even more outrageous outlay for Real Madrid in the summer if they buy him from PSG.
Neymar's lieutenants - Philippe Coutinho and Gabriel Jesus with Roberto Firmino as another option, constitutes the most exciting attack in the tournament. Behind them sit the tough guys to balance the flair - Casemiro, Fernandinho and Paulinho.
Then comes PSG's Marquinhos who has established his credentials alongside Miranda - the M&M centre-back pairing.
Where are the weaknesses?
Once again they depend much on one player but Neymar is also a card risk - he was booked six times in the qualifiers and has nothing like the internal discipline of a Leo Messi.
Marcelo is well known for his attacking desire but is also prone to defensive lapses. Along with the other full back Danilo he bombs forward, leaving space on both flanks to exploit on the counter.
Holding man Casemiro, who sits in front of the back four, is not perhaps the fastest and could get isolated if the midfield duo do not track back.
As Brazil attack en masse, hitting them on the break could be the best countermeasure.
Brazil qualified with ease but that was partly due to their South American rivals all falling short so it could be argued they are yet to be tested against the best. Against England's 3-5-2 at Wembley in November they failed to penetrate.
The unfamiliar terrain of Russia should have little bearing on the outcome. Only three of the 23-man squad play in Brazil and as far back as 1958 Brazil took the World Cup in the northern climes of Sweden.
With an average age of 28, Brazil's squad is a little older than the optimum 26 of previous winners, so a long tournament of extra-times and penalties could take its toll. On the other hand, public expectation is less than four years ago which should help.
It is impossible to see Brazil not making it through Group E but shock horror could meet Germany as early as the second round. It's a 50-50 chance in reality. Perhaps it is better to get your biggest battles over first, before the legs start to tire.
The 2014 hangover has certainly passed now and Brazil are back with aplomb.Switzerland
Coach: Vladimir Petkovic
Formation: 4-2-3-1
FIFA World Ranking: 6th
Best World Cup: Quarter Final 1934, 1938, 1954
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Switzerland Kit 1
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Switzerland Kit 2
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Switzerland v Brazil 17 June; Rostov-on-Don
Switzerland v Serbia 22 June; Kaliningrad
Switzerland v Costa Rica 27 June; Novgorod
Another of those sides eager to shake off the tag of perennial qualifiers but perennial underachievers, the Swiss have a baptism of fire when they play Brazil in Rostov in their opening match.
Realistically they are in a three-way scrap for second place alongside two teams at a similar level.
Petkovic's team like to play positively as opposed to safety first and are usually a tough nut to crack at the group stage.
Xherdan Shaqiri is of course their main man. Still only 26, the right-sided raider might have got relegated with Stoke this season but on his day is still a game-changer. His nickname of 'The Messi of the Alps' is not unfair and the Swiss still pin their hopes on him terrorising some sleeping defenders.
Arsenal's Grant Xhaka is the playmaker from deep midfield and their other keystone is full back and captain Stephane Lichtsteiner, of Juventus, who at 34 may not have the legs for the repeated upfield charges which have gained him the moniker Forrest Gump.
Calcio is fairly well represented in their ranks in fact: Attacking left-back Ricardo Rodriguez of Milan and the midfield trio of Remo Freuler of Atalanta, Valon Behrami of Udinese and Blerim Dzemali of Bologna. The Bundesliga employs ten of the 23 by comparison.
A new face who might shine if picked is 21-year-old midfielder Denis Zakaria, who impressed when thrown in at the end of the qualifiers. Behrami, 12 years his senior however is expected to be first choice in the middle.
Up front they lack punch. Benfica's Haris Seferovic is unlikely to scare many defences but remains first choice, ahead of Josip Drmic, who has a superior strike rate.
Whilst they finished second in European Qualifying Group B only on goal difference, a legacy of not scoring enough against Andorra, they only edged past a superior Northern Ireland 1-0 on aggregate in the playoffs, showing an apparent lack of nerve.
If they can take points off Brazil they will feel confident of exiting the group alive but their mentality will be tested by what is likely to be an opening defeat. Their clashes with Costa Rica and Serbia are too close to call.
Most watchers expect Switzerland to perform well in the group before facing a second-round exit, in other words, to do their usual.
The group is certainly navigable for the Swiss but less than kind - unless they beat Brazil, the best they can expect is a Round of 16 clash with Germany.
Costa Rica
Coach: Oscar Ramirez
Formation: 5-4-1
FIFA World Ranking: 23rd
Best World Cup: Quarter Final 2014
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Costa Rica Kit 1 |
Costa Rica Kit 2 |
Costa Rica v Serbia 17 June; Samara
Costa Rica v Brazil 22 June; St. Petersburg
Costa Rica v Switzerland; 27 June; Novgorod
Can lightning strike twice?
The dark horses of 2014 are back with essentially the same team. Around eight of the eleven who shocked the world by beating Italy, Uruguay and Greece and losing to the Dutch on penalties in the quarter finals should start in Russia.
Costa Rica flew the CONCACAF flag wonderfully in Brazil and were arguably cheated out of a first semi-final for their confederation by Tim Krul's gamesmanship in the shootout. When the tears dried they realised how much they had achieved and received a heroes' welcome home.
In picking the same personnel, coach Oscar Ramirez is not just reliving the past however. Paulo Wanchope had tried to rejuvenate the side after Brazil but quit in 2015 when it was clear the old guard were still needed.
Ramirez recalled them and Los Ticos qualified for Russia.
It was an up and down qualifying campaign. Back-to-back wins over the USA put the nails in Jurgen Klinsmann's coffin but the team could not win home or away against Honduras, Mexico or Panama.
11 of the final squad of 23 have more than 50 caps each and 18 of them more than 30. The evolution did not happen with only 20 year-old defender Ian Smith a new face in the squad.
So no other side at the finals have such shared experience but telepathy will not be enough. For one thing Los Ticos are no longer an unknown quantity so opponents may have sussed them out.
For another, the core of the team have struggled for playing time in Europe this season and strikers Joel Campbell and Bryan Ruiz have not been scoring goals. Lastly they are four years older and while ageing brings wisdom to the mind it also slows the body down.
There is a feeling the team have got too defensive to make up for tiring legs but there has been no corresponding improvement in results.
In goal at least they have no worries because Keylor Navas has just won the Champions League with Real Madrid and is one of the world's most agile shot-stoppers.
Celso Borges, with 112 caps, is the midfield hub but has also had a lean season - relegated from La Primera in Spain with Deportivo La Coruna.
This year's friendlies have not offered much optimism. Despite wins over Scotland and Northern Ireland they lost 1-0 to Tunisia and were clearly second best going down 2-0 to England before getting hammered 4-1 in Belgium.
So an experienced and united team will travel to Russia with few illusions or expectations.
Costa Rica will frighten nobody going into the World Cup, but that was what they said last time.
Perhaps we are all guilty of writing them off too soon.
Serbia
Coach: Mladen Krstajic
Formation: 4-2-3-1
FIFA World Ranking: 34th
Best World Cup: 1st Round in 2010
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Serbia |
Serbia |
Serbia v Costa Rica 17 June; Samara
Serbia v Switzerland 22 June; Kaliningrad
Serbia v Brazil 27 June; Moscow
The Serbs go to Russia with a mountain to climb but plenty of confidence of causing an upset.
After four points from eight games meant they missed Euro 2016 by a country mile, few gave them much hope of qualifying for Russia 2018.
Yet one of UEFA's weaker sides confounded the experts by winning their group ahead of Euro 2016 semi-finalists Wales, Austria, Georgia, Moldova and the Republic of Ireland.
The coach Slavoljub Muslin was fired for reasons still not entirely clear, leaving Mladen Krstajic a year to make his mark before the finals
Their form this year is equally double-sided: Two wins - beating Bolivia and Nigeria, and two losses - going down to Chile and Morocco.
The defence can look porous so while it hard to know which Serbia will turn up at the finals they are sure to be a tough nut to crack for any side.
Their team is packed with battle-hardened pros like Manchester United's controlling midfielder Nemanja Matic and Zenit St Petersburg's centre-back Branislav Ivanovic, latterly with Chelsea for almost a decade.
Roma left back Aleksandar Kolarov is another no-nonsense defender with a hattery of caps to his name. He is now the captain too thanks to Krstajic, a decision which apparently caused some acrimony in the dressing room when Ivanovic was stripped of the armband.
They have a couple of useful wide men in Filip Kostic and Dusan Tadic but the stand-out star could be Lazio's 23 year-old Sergej Milinkovic-Savic, a mobile attacking midfielder who has only three caps but about whom there is a lot of chatter.
Up front Aleksandar Mitrovic, who has enjoyed a prolific season on loan at Fulham from Newcastle, is sure to start and may play in a front two alongside another Aleksandar, Prijovic of Salonika.
If they can stay tight at the back they certainly have the attackers to win games and should not be written off before the tournament starts.
Another factor in their favour is the comfort of staying in another Slavic country, which has long been culturally and politically close.
Serbia has a good a chance as Costa Rica or Switzerland of grabbing second spot behind Brazil, but a lack of depth means they are unlikely to get beyond the Round of 16.
Expectations for Serbia remain modest.