J-League Season 2017: Relegation & Promotion
Sean Carroll
There are just a handful of games to go in both J1 and J2 and almost a full league of teams split across the two divisions scrapping to confirm which tier they will be competing in next year.
The fact that Shonan Bellmare will be replacing Albirex Niigata in the top flight is all but confirmed - the former are 10 points clear in the automatic promotion places in J2 while the latter are 13 adrift at the bottom of J1 - but beyond that it is still all to play for.
At least thirteen other teams are still in the mix to slip through the trap door or win promotion, meaning we are at that wonderful point in the season when every match acquires a sense of dramatic importance and the 'as it stands' table frequently pops up as goals set off chain reactions around the country.
Vegalta Sendai (35 points, -11 goal difference) are pretty much safe from relegation in 12th place in J1, but their eight-point cushion from the drop zone is not quite enough to see them mathematically assured of a ninth consecutive campaign in the top flight just yet. At the other end of our 'relegation/promotion league' perennial not-quite-good-enough J2 outfit JEF United are seven points outside the play-off zone in 10th place on 53 points.
Oita Trinita (57, +7) and Yokohama FC (57, +10) stand a better chance of making the top six, as do Tokyo Verdy (60, +13), but while consistency has been key for all three throughout this campaign Yokohama pressed the panic button after last week's 2-0 defeat to Montedio Yamagata, firing manager Hitoshi Nakata.
Such flustered reactions are not uncommon in the second tier as clubs fret about a season's work coming to nothing, but the decision to remove a popular coach who had extracted a par performance from his steady but unspectacular squad was a strange one - it is no coincidence that the back-to-back defeats that preceded his departure came after injuries to defensive stalwart Calvin Jong-a-pin and star striker Abdurahim 'Ibba' Laajab.
Sporting Director Kazuhiko Okudera will take charge of Yokohama's next game against neighbours Machida Zelvia, but it seems the Japanese football legend will only be in the dugout as a one-off as the club look to parachute somebody else in to try and snatch a spot in the post-season play-offs.
Those berths are currently occupied by Tokushima Vortis (60, +25), Matsumoto Yamaga (61, +18), Nagoya Grampus (65, +18), and V-Varen Nagasaki (67, +9) - all teams with pedigree who expected to be involved in the mix for promotion ahead of this campaign.
Vortis spent a solitary season in J1 in 2014 after beating JEF in the previous year's play-offs, and after a couple of years re-adjusting to life in the second tier they have been one of the more entertaining sides to watch this season under the attack-minded Spaniard Ricardo Rodriguez, and are currently the second-highest scorers behind Nagoya Grampus - to whom we shall come shortly.
Matsumoto also have a single J1 campaign under their belts, but like Vortis they dropped straight back down after their 2015 adventure before losing in the semi-finals of last year's play-offs, while Varen have never managed to secure promotion but have plenty of previous pain in the play-offs too, having lost in the semi-finals in 2013 and 2015.
Grampus, on the other hand are slumming it in the second division for the first time in their history, and were runaway favourites for the title before a ball had been kicked on account of a squad packed with talent - both domestic and foreign - and the acquisition of manager Yahiro Kazama, who had established himself as one of the J.League's best tacticians in five years at J1 side Kawasaki Frontale.
The large turnover of players and plenty of teething problems implementing the 55-year-old's particular way of playing - a possession-based approach with a heavy focus on attacking - has seen them struggle to dominate the division as expected though, and for every thrashing handed out - 7-4 against Ehime, for instance, or 6-2 over neighbours FC Gifu - there have also been setbacks such as defeats at home to relegation-threatened Renofa Yamaguchi and home and away to Zweigen Kanazawa.
They are clicking into form again as the teams round the final bend though and are one of the key threats to Avispa Fukuoka, another yo-yo side looking to bounce straight back up to J1 after dropping down for the fourth time last year, who currently occupy the second and final automatic promotion spot with 69 points and a +18 goal difference.
Above all of them, for the time being at least, there is a handful of clubs hoping they won't be making way for whoever succeeds in winning promotion, and again there are a lot of familiar faces involved.
All five have previous experience travelling between the two tiers, with Omiya Ardija (23, -23), Sanfrecce Hiroshima (27, -14), Ventforet Kofu (28, -13), Shimizu S-Pulse (29, -17), and Consadole Sapporo (31, -12) battling to avoid the drop.
Shimizu and Sapporo were two of last year's promoted sides and were widely tipped for a season of struggle, while Omiya and Kofu are also no strangers to the relegation dogfight.
This year's special guests in that scrap, however, are Sanfrecce - who you may remember from 2012, 2013, and 2015 when they won the first division title. Just two years on from their third crown in four years - and a narrow defeat to River Plate in the Club World Cup semi-final - the Purple Archers have been misfiring spectacularly, however, and if things don't pick up in the coming weeks they could be dropping down to the second division for the first time since 2008.
There is still enough football to be played for them to avoid that fate, but, as is the case for all the teams jostling for position, things are not entirely in their own hands. As it stands, shall we say, they'll be in J2 next season.
Copyright: Sean Carroll & Soccerphile.com
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