J-League Season 2013 Climax
Paul Williams
Just when you thought Yokohama F.Marinos had done enough to see off the challenge of Sanfrecce Hiroshima the J.League throws up another twist.
Most pundits, this one included, were expecting Yokohama to seal their first domestic title in almost a decade when they played host to mid-table Albirex Niigata on Saturday afternoon. An expectant crowd of 62,632, a J.League record, packed into the Nissan Stadium expecting the same.
But if the J.League has taught us anything over the years it is to expect the unexpected.
With that in mind it should have come as no surprise that the game didn't go to script, with Niigata scoring an upset 2-0 win, meaning that for the sixth time since 2005 the title will be decided on the final day of the season. It's a remarkable stat.
Of course it will take a lot to beat the drama of 2005 when the top five went into the final round separated by just two points. A last minute equaliser for FC Tokyo against Cerezo Osaka handed the title to their cross town rivals, Gamba Osaka, while Cerezo, who went into the final round on top, slid down to fifth, still just one point behind Gamba.
While three teams - Yokohama, Sanfrecce and Kashima Antlers - are still mathematically in the race this year, in reality it is a race in two between Yokohama and Sanfrecce. The permutations for the final round are almost endless, especially when it comes to ACL places (more on that soon). For the title it is relatively simple.
Win and Yokohama are the Champions. Draw or lose and it will depend on the result of the Kashima vs Sanfrecce game. With all games set to kick off at the same time there will be nervous fans right across the country checking their phones as the clock nears 90 minutes. It is one of the great moments in football the world over. You cannot beat it for drama.
Of course it's not just the title on the line; there is also the small matter of AFC Champions League places to be decided too. Yokohama can finish no lower than second, so they have secured their place in the 2014 competition. The final two places will be decided on the final day. And in a stroke of luck, the top six sides, who all stand a chance of finishing in the top three will play each other on the final weekend. Whoever put the fixture together at J.League HQ deserves their bonus this year!
Urawa's shock 1-4 loss to lowly Sagan Tosu last week sent them from second to fourth, and now in danger of missing out on back-to-back AFC Champions League campaigns. The equation for them is simple when they face Cerezo Osaka - win. Having run through all the different permutations for the final round it's that simple for Urawa, win and they finish third. They can finish third if they draw, however only if Sanfrecce defeat Kashima and Kawasaki lose or draw.
For Cerezo it is much harder. They must win, and even then they're relying on other results to go their way.
Every match matters, and quite possibly every goal matters with GD every possibility to separate some sides come full time.
To save you the torture of going through it all, I've put together all the different permutations (below) for the final day in relation to the title and AFC Champions League places.
J2 gets it wrong with playoffs
The J.League copped a lot of flak this year for their plans to introduce convoluted and confusing two-stage system to for J1. One decision they have got right in recent seasons is the introduction of the Playoffs to determine the third team to earn promotion to J1.
But they've got a serious flaw in the format of the playoffs, giving too much weighting to the teams who finished higher on the table and thus earned home ground advantage for the first round playoffs.
In my opinion, the playoffs are a new competition with all teams starting fresh. It is right to award home ground advantage to the the two teams who finished highest on the table if you're only going to play over one-leg, but that's where the advantage must end. To have it that the home team will advance if the games ends in a draw is grossly unfair, especially when margins on the table can be as small as +1 goal difference.
This season there was one point separating Tokushima Vortis and JEF United Chiba, and four separating Kyoto Sanga and V-Varen Nagasaki. Fine margins indeed over a season consisting of 42 games.
And with both games ending in draws (1-1 and 0-0 respectively), both Tokushima and Kyoto advanced to the final playoff by virtue of being the home team. No extra time to try and find a winner, no penalties.
People argue penalties are a tough way to get knocked out, to get knocked out by home ground advantage is worse. Penalties are a lottery, granted, but at least the match is decided on the pitch.
Some will argue that by having such a rule gives due recognition for the team who performs better over the home and away season. If that's the case, do away with the playoffs altogether.
The playoffs are a post-season competition, like a finals system or a cup competition. Straight knockout, winner takes all. And that is the point. Winner takes all. There were no winners on Sunday.
It will be the same in the final playoff, with Kyoto, by virtue of finishing one place ahead of Tokushima, needing just a draw to earn promotion back to J1 for the first time since 2010.
Should Tokushima get the win they need they will earn promotion to the J.League for the first time in their history. After winning the JFL title in 2004 to earn promotion to J2 they just missed promotion in 2011, finishing fourth in the final year before the playoff system was introduced.
It would be a great story, but to do it they have to overcome a ridiculous rule that puts them on the back foot before a ball is even kicked.
J.LEAGUE PERMUTATIONS - FINAL ROUND
Yokohama F.Marinos
IF WIN: Win title
IF DRAW AND SANFRECCE WIN: Finish second on GD
SANFRECCE/KASHIMA DRAW: Win title
KASHIMA WIN: Win title
IF LOSE AND SANFRECCE WIN: Finish second (*)
SANFRECCE/KASHIMA DRAW: Win title
KASHIMA WIN: Win title
*Dependent on GD, would require losing by 4-5 goals and Kashima winning by 4-5 goals
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
IF WIN AND YOKOHAMA WIN: Finish second
YOKOHAMA/KAWASAKI DRAW: Win title on GD
KAWASAKI WIN: Win title
IF DRAW AND YOKOHAMA WIN/LOSE/DRAW and CEREZO WIN: Finish second
YOKOHAMA WIN/LOSE/DRAW and URAWA/CEREZO DRAW: Finish second
YOKOHAMA WIN/LOSE/DRAW and URAWA WIN: Finish second (dependent on GD)
IF LOSE AND YOKOHAMA WIN//LOSE/DRAW and CEREZO WIN: Finish third*
YOKOHAMA WIN/LOSE/DRAW and URAWA/CEREZO DRAW: Finish third*
YOKOHAMA WIN/LOSE/DRAW and URAWA WIN: Finish fourth*
*Dependent on size of loss and size of Kawasaki win, may drop to fourth
Kashima Antlers
IF WIN AND YOKOHAMA WIN/DRAW and CEREZO WIN: Finish second
YOKOHAMA WIN/DRAW and URAWA/CEREZO DRAW: Finish second
YOKOHAMA WIN/DRAW and URAWA WIN: Finish second
KAWASKI WIN: Finish second (unless win by 5-6 goals and YFM lose by 5-6 goals)
IF DRAW AND YOKOHAMA WIN/DRAW and CEREZO WIN: Finish third
YOKOHAMA WIN/DRAW and URAWA/CEREZO DRAW: Finish third
YOKOHAMA WIN/DRAW and URAWA WIN: Finish fourth
KAWASAKI WIN and CEREZO WIN: Finish fourth
KAWASAKI WIN and URAWA/CEREZO DRAW: Finish fourth
KAWASAKI WIN and URAWA WIN: Finish fifth
IF LOSE AND YOKOHAMA WIN/DRAW and CEREZO WIN: Finish fourth
YOKOHAMA WIN/DRAW and URAWA/CEREZO DRAW: Finish fourth
YOKOHAMA WIN/DRAW and URAWA WIN: Finish fourth
KAWASAKI WIN and CEREZO WIN: Finish fifth
KAWASAKI WIN and URAWA/CEREZO DRAW: Finish fifth
KAWASAKI WIN and URAWA WIN: Finish fifth
Urawa Reds
IF WIN AND SANFRECCE WIN: Finish third
SANFRECCE/KASHIMA DRAW: Finish third
KASHIMA WIN: Finish third
*If win, result of Kawasaki-Yokohama does not matter
IF DRAW AND SANFRECCE WIN and KAWASAKI LOSE/DRAW: Finish third
SANFRECCE WIN and KAWASAKI WIN: Finish fourth
SANFRECCE/KASHIMA DRAW and KAWASAKI LOSE/DRAW: Finish fourth
SANFRECCE/KASHIMA DRAW and KAWASAKI WIN: Finish fifth
KASHIMA WIN and KAWASAKI LOSE/DRAW: Finish fourth
KASHIMA WIN and KAWASAKI WIN: Finish fifth
IF LOSE AND KAWASAKI WIN: Finish sixth
KAWASKI DRAW: Finish sixth
KAWASAKI LOSE: Finish fifth
Kawasaki Frontale
IF WIN AND SANFRECCE WIN and URAWA WIN: Finish fourth
SANFRECCE WIN and URAWA/CEREZO DRAW: Finish third
SANFRECCE WIN and URAWA LOSE: Finish third
SANFRECCE/KASHIMA DRAW and URAWA WIN: Finish fourth
SANFRECCE/KASHIMA DRAW and URAWA/CERZO DRAW: Finish third on GD
SANFRECCE/KASHIMA DRAW and CEREZO WIN: Finish third
KASHIMA WIN and URAWA WIN: Finish fourth
KASHIMA WIN and URAWA/CEREZO DRAW: Finish third
KASHIMA WIN and CEREZO WIN: Finish third
IF DRAW AND URAWA WIN: Finish fifth
URAWA/CEREZO DRAW: Finish fifth
CEREZO WIN: Finish fifth
*If draw, result from Sanfrecce-Kashima does not matter
IF LOSE AND URAWA/CEREZO DRAW: Finish sixth
URAWA WIN: Finish fifth
CEREZO WIN: Finish sixth
*If lose, result from Sanfrecce-Kashima does not matter
Cerezo Osaka
IF WIN AND SANFRECCE WIN and YOKOHAMA WIN: Finish third on GD from Kashima
SANFRECCE WIN and YOKOHAMA/KAWASAKI DRAW: Finish third on GD from KA
SANFRECCE WIN and KAWASAKI WIN: Finish fourth on GD from KA
SANFRECCE/KASHIMA DRAW and YOKOHAMA WIN: Finish fourth
SANFRECCE/KASHIMA DRAW and YOKOHAMA/KAWASAKI DRAW: Finish fourth
SANFRECCE/KASHIMA DRAW and KAWASAKI WIN: Finish fifth
KASHIMA WIN and YOKOHAMA WIN: Finish fourth
KASHIMA WIN and YOKOHAMA/KAWASAKI DRAW: Finish fourth
KASHIMA WIN and KAWASAKI WIN: Finish fourth
IF DRAW AND KAWASAKI LOSE: Finish fifth
*Cannot finish higher than fifth if they draw
IF LOSE Cannot move from sixth
Copyright: Paul Williams & Soccerphile.com
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