UEFA EURO 2024 FINAL - SPAIN v ENGLAND
24 teams have been whittled down to two and on Sunday night in Berlin only one will be the champion.
A high-scoring side playing flowing football with two flying wingers will meet a safety-first team who have nudged past their opponents by the odd goal or spot kick.
Luis de la Fuente's Spain seem to know only one way to play while Gareth Southgate's England, despite a deeper pool of attacking talent, have maintained conservative tactics.
So if you want to predict the final, then expect a close, nervous and risk-free match.
THE SPANISH SUCCESSION
Spain are the only team to have won every match at Euro 2024 and have sailed ahead of the rest of the field. Just like eventual winners Italy stood out from the first round of Euro 2020, Spain have impressed since the beginning this time. They are worthy favourites.
Spain have flourished because they have happily laid to rest the dead-end philosophy of their 'passenaccio' (possession for possession's sake) period, which followed their golden age of 2008-2012. The most obvious change has been the inclusion of two fast kids on the flanks - Nico Williams and Lamine Yamal.
While Williams, aged 22, is a revelation himself, most eyes are on the newly 17 year-old Yamal on the right wing. The Barcelona starlet is the anointed son of the Euros following his wonder goal against France and his African backstory. Smashing youth records at home and abroad, the new Pele's arrival on the big stage has been exciting. What is remarkable is that his excellent technique is mirrored by a calmness and maturity beyond his years.
Rodri has transferred his imperious form for Manchester City to Spain's midfield and with PSG's Fabián Ruiz forms an awesome distributive duo in the middle, a pair whom the manager has coached with Spain since U-19 level.
Alvaro Morata is still a hit and miss marksman and perhaps mindful of their previous false nine philosophy, Spain do not have a pure striker which explains why they have had ten different goalscorers this tournament compared to England's four.
Dani Olmo's three strikes in three knockout games bodes well for the final where he could become the tournament's top gunner but his mobility is his ace.
Currently there are six strikers tied on three goals - Olmo, Harry Kane, Cody Gakpo, Georges Mikautadze, Jamal Musiala and Ivan Schranz. Olmo is another alumnus of Spain's youth sides, coached by their current manager.
But the team is much more than a few shining stars. They are a cohesive and telepathic unit above all with a unanimity of purpose. That is the secret of their success.
Spain have proved their mettle on the harder side of the draw, having to defeat ever tough nuts Croatia, holders Italy, wild cards Albania and Georgia, hosts Germany and World Cup finalists France, a rougher ride to the Olympiastadion in Berlin than England's passage.
Minus the injured Pedri, they will be at full strength for the final following Dani Carvajal and Robin Le Normand's returns from suspension, while La Roja will have had an extra day of rest compared to England.
It is remarkable they are a major football nation but have a manager who has next to no professional coaching experience. Luis De La Fuente, the 5'8" bespectacled bald 63-year-old man with the white stubble, has managed no higher than 11 games in charge of third division Alaves in 2011.
While other nations have scrambled to get a big name in charge, the best team at Euro 2024 has in effect done it with an amateur coach. De La Fuente has worked his way up the national youth teams since 2013, bagging the U19 and U21 European Championships and the Olympic silver medal en route, building relationships with the country's best young players.
England appointing a coach from the ranks sounds unthinkable. When the F.A. Director of Coaching Allen Wade applied for the England manager role in 1977, Brian Clough likened it to his wife applying for his job.
De la Fuente is a mild and humble man without pretensions, a fan of bullfighting and karaoke, but he deserves a lot of credit for moulding a happy and united unit playing great football. He has managed to form an esprit de corps with no egos, which has paid dividends.
With Williams and Yamal prominent, youth is an obvious ace for Spain, although there is still an experienced backbone of Real Madrid veterans Dani Carvajal, age 32, Nacho and Joselu (both 34), 31-year-old Morata of Atletico Madrid and even 38-year-old Jesús Navas of Sevilla as back-up.
Like England who have come back three times to win in the knockout stages, Spain have fallen behind before triumphing against France and Georgia, so conceding first would not upset them psychologically.
If Spain have weaknesses, then it is at the back where other teams, particularly Croatia, created chances against them and they have not been great at dealing with crosses.
While full backs Dani Carvajal and Marc Cucurella are playing at top teams (Real Madrid and Chelsea) and performing, centre backs Nacho and Aymeric Laporte are now playing in Saudi Arabia and there are fears they are past their best.
The mood in the camp and country is high and Spain expects a football renaissance to start on Sunday.
ENGLISH EXCEPTIONALISM
AS, Spain's football daily, called England 'The Miracle Team' at Euro 2024, adding they had an 'unsinkable' quality to them.
After an encouraging first half an hour against Serbia, England reverted to the conservative, risk-free football Gareth Southgate has taught his men to play at previous tournaments, irritating a public itching to see him unleash his panoply of attacking options.
The frustration has continued from fans and media alike, soothed only by the first 45 minutes against the Netherlands when England came out of their shell, as well as Jude Bellingham's last-gasp lifesaver against Slovakia and Ollie Watkins' winner against the Dutch.
Over six games the evidence is clear that England will not take the game to Spain unless they are losing.
Unlike Spain who won all their games with some élan, England have stumbled to the final having come from behind to win in all their three knockout matches. Against Slovakia, it was Bellingham's 95th minute miracle that kept them in the tournament and avoided a narrative of fear and failure in the record books.
Then they needed a penalty shootout to beat the Swiss before Watkins' moment of magic in the 90th minute pipped Oranje to the final.
Southgate has been roundly criticised yet again for not attacking enough and leaving his substitutions late (Watkins and Cole Palmer came on in the 80th minute against the Dutch but combined to score) but for the second successive Euros, he has guided England to the final.
England's safety-first instinct is sure to repeat itself in the final with full backs Kieran Trippier and Kyle Walker sure to curtail their forward runs and sit back to track Spain's two flying flankers. The presence of Williams and Yamal will make Southgate wary of replaying his preferred back three with Luke Shaw, so he will probably play a back four to cover the extra spaces in the corners.
The Spanish press and counterpress are also reasons to bank on England keeping it tight and Southgate withholding the entry of Cole Palmer and Watkins until late on again.
Southgate has proved his tactical acumen in changing formations throughout the tournament and inserting Kobbie Mainoo into the middle when he had started with Trent Alexander-Arnold. Leaving the talents of Jack Grealish and Marcus Rashford at home proved he is also not afraid of big decisions.
Southgate is sure his approach works given he has taken England to two Euro finals and a World Cup semi final so is not about to abandon his principles for the all-out attack the fans crave and the press demands.
That suggests a cagey contest with few goalscoring opportunities and a strong possibility of extra time and penalties. Mindful of England's shootout acumen against the Swiss, Spain will be keen to score and avoid the 11-metre tests.
England have looked best when the opposition has retreated, allowing Phil Foden and Bellingham to work their magic, although there are still suspicions they replicate roles.
Doubts too remain about England's lack of a left-footer and puzzlement why Southgate has so much faith in a less than match-sharp Shaw and has not fielded left-winger Anthony Gordon to solve the problem.
It seems sure Southgate will stick to his preferred starters but the nation will be wondering again when he will bring on the likes of Cole Palmer and Watkins to change the game.
The Spanish press is concentrating on Bellingham as the main threat to La Roja, but that perception is based on his Real Madrid success more than his England form. The greater threats will probably be from the rejuvenated Foden, Kobbie Mainoo, Bukayo Saka and, if they will only be given the chance, Palmer and Watkins.
Harry Kane may score too, although the skipper has played a quiet and isolated role for much of the tournament. He remains lethal from the penalty spot of course.
Like Spain, England have grown in confidence as they have advanced through Euro 2024, but unlike La Roja have had to put up with constant heckling. It may have created a siege mentality which helped the team get through in the end.
THE STAT BATTLE
Spain look more mobile than in recent years but maintain their shape thanks to a telepathy beyond other teams with the exception of perhaps Portugal, who despite carrying a past-it Cristiano Ronaldo, played intelligent football and topped the tournament's possession stats with an average of 65% of the ball in each match.
When it comes to keeping the ball, Spain are actually only fourth at Euro 2024, behind Portugal, Germany and England.
Despite their route one ancestry, England are statistically more of a passing team than Spain or anyone else at Euro 2024:
TOTAL PASSES - ENGLAND 3593 (1st) v 3202 (3rd) SPAIN
PASSING ACCURACY - ENGLAND 90.3% v 90% SPAIN
BALL POSSESSION - ENGLAND 59% v 57% SPAIN
But Spain are using the ball more effectively, outcrossing and outshooting the Three Lions. When it comes to hitting the onion bag, La Roja have almost double England's tally:
GOALS SCORED - SPAIN 13-7 ENGLAND
Spanish scorers - Dani Olmo 3, Fabian Ruiz 2, Dani Carvajal, Alvaro Morata, Mikel Merino, Pedri, Rodri, Ferran Torres, Nico Williams, Lamine Yamal 1
English scorers - Harry Kane 3, Jude Bellingham 2, Bukayo Saka, Ollie Watkins 1
SHOTS ON-TARGET - SPAIN 37 v 19 ENGLAND
TOTAL SHOTS - SPAIN 108 v 66 ENGLAND
CROSSES ATTEMPTED - SPAIN 104 v 91 ENGLAND
CROSSING ACCURACY - SPAIN 32% (1st) v 23% (16th) ENGLAND
La Roja have been playing more aggressively and on the front foot than England:
ATTACKS - SPAIN 351 v 313 ENGLAND
DRIBBLES - SPAIN 131 v 104 ENGLAND
POSSESSION WON BACK - SPAIN 255 v 221 ENGLAND
When it comes to defending, Spain also have the edge over England from their six matches:
GOALS CONCEDED - SPAIN 3 v 4 ENGLAND
CLEAN SHEETS - SPAIN 3 v 2 ENGLAND
From their opening 3-0 dismissal of Croatia it was clear they would be one to watch for the trophy. Their subsequent defeat of holders Italy, hosts Germany and World Cup finalists France confirmed they are in pole position.
However, England have the edge on discipline which could be a factor in a nervous final. Spain's tally includes the two yellow cards for Dani Carvajal against France which saw him sent off but he can play on Sunday.
BOOKINGS - ENGLAND 11 v 17 SPAIN
Another advantage England have is their kick-perfect penalty shoot-out win over Switzerland, which gives them a psychological edge over Spain, who have not taken any yet, should the final come to what the Germans call Elfmeters.
THE FINAL TALLY
Spain deserve more than any team to be in the final but with England it is less certain. They edged past Slovakia, who were seconds from eliminating them, Switzerland on penalties and then the Netherlands, who had finished third in their group.
Had the Three Lions been in the other half of the draw it is doubtful whether they would have got past France, Germany, Portugal and Spain.
But this is a cup competition after all so the best two teams do not always reach the final. That also means the underdog can win a one-off at a neutral venue.
La Roja remain rightful favourites, but football is played on grass, not paper. Lamine Yamal lifting the Henri Delaunay trophy aged 16 would be a wonderful story for football's annals with echoes of a teenage Pele in 1958.
In the same way, it would be a fantastic day if England became kings of Europe for the first time, got the weight of 1966 off their back and Gareth Southgate silenced the critics who claim he always falls at the final hurdle.
Both teams have lived in Sommermärchen for the past month in Germany and immensely enjoyed the ride. But only one summer fairy tale can end happily.
Let battle commence.
Sean O'Conor
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